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There are 2 comments on this article
uncleFred - firstname.lastname@example.org - 4 Oct 2012 11:34 AM
GIGO - garbage in garbage out. The overwhelming majority of polls that appear on RCP share the same demographic assumptions about the electorate and turnout. That is they are using 2008 and the floor for Democrat performance. If those assumptions are wrong (and the internals of the polls themselves make a case they are) then the result is wrong.
AJ Simkatu - email@example.com - 3 Oct 2012 6:08 PM
This confirms works by other statisticians, such as Nate Silver at 538 blog. All the bookmaking sites have Obama as a 3-1 or 4-1 favorite or more. Intrade.com prediction market shows Obama with a 75% chance of winning the election. It's in the bag.
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